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Projected Conference Wins

Total Conf Wins
17 17% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16 36% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 28% 31% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 16% 16% 5% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13 4% 5% 14% 9% 6% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 1% 1% 22% 17% 17% 7% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
11 0% 0% 26% 24% 28% 16% 15% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 0% 0% 20% 23% 24% 23% 23% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9 0% 0% 8% 14% 16% 25% 23% 12% 8% 2% 1% 1% 0%
8 0% 0% 2% 7% 5% 15% 19% 25% 20% 11% 9% 3% 1%
7 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 10% 7% 29% 28% 23% 20% 11% 4%
6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 18% 23% 24% 24% 24% 10%
5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 14% 22% 24% 31% 21%
4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 11% 16% 22% 25%
3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 7% 24%
2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 11%
1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Wgtd Avg Wins 15.4 15.3 11.2 10.7 10.5 9.4 9.4 7.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.1
Current Conf
W/L Record		 6-1 7-1 6-2 5-2 5-3 4-4 4-4 4-4 3-5 1-7 2-6 3-5 1-7

Probabilities from 1,000 season simulations using kenpom ratings.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.

Projected Conference Standings

Final Conf
Standing
1 66% 60% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 32% 38% 5% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 2% 2% 43% 31% 28% 12% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4 0% 0% 24% 24% 27% 17% 17% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 0% 0% 14% 18% 21% 17% 19% 6% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0%
6 0% 0% 8% 12% 13% 20% 22% 10% 7% 2% 1% 1% 0%
7 0% 0% 2% 8% 6% 19% 17% 15% 13% 7% 6% 2% 1%
8 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 8% 9% 29% 24% 17% 13% 8% 3%
9 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 17% 23% 19% 16% 12% 6%
10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 13% 17% 21% 18% 8%
11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 10% 17% 19% 26% 15%
12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 13% 14% 23% 22%
13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 9% 10% 45%
Avg Standing 1.4 1.4 3.9 4.4 4.5 5.6 5.7 8.0 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.8
Current Conf
W/L Record		 6-1 7-1 6-2 5-2 5-3 4-4 4-4 4-4 3-5 1-7 2-6 3-5 1-7

Probabilities from 1,000 season simulations using kenpom ratings.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.

Conference Schedule Difficulty

Location Opponent Win Probability for
Avg Team in
Conference
Away 9% - L 02/23 - L 02/26 03/07 02/09 - 02/05 L - L
Away 14% 03/06 - L - - L - L 02/08 02/19 L 02/01 03/03
Home 28% L - L - - 02/02 02/13 W 01/30 - 03/02 03/04 02/16
Home 33% - L 02/27 W - 02/11 02/23 03/09 - - 02/03 L L
Away 35% 02/01 - 03/06 03/02 02/03 - 02/16 02/23 L L - L -
Away 36% 02/10 03/09 - W 02/27 L 02/02 - - - W L 02/20
Away 37% L 02/01 02/16 L 03/09 - 02/26 - L 02/12 - - L
Away 41% 02/26 02/19 L 01/30 - 02/15 L - - 02/02 03/09 L -
Away 42% L W - 02/16 W - W - 02/23 03/09 02/27 02/12 -
Away 43% 03/02 - W - W 02/05 L L 03/06 - 02/11 02/23 -
Away 48% - L 03/02 02/13 02/23 L - 02/06 - L W - 02/09
Away 49% L - - 02/02 02/11 - - W W 02/22 02/19 W 03/06
Away 53% - 02/08 - 03/04 W 03/02 02/19 L 02/05 W - - L
Home 54% - 02/11 L W W 02/19 L - 03/09 L - - 02/27
Home 55% L L - 02/23 W - 03/02 02/16 W 02/08 03/06 - -
Home 56% 02/19 W - 02/09 W L 02/06 - - 03/04 02/23 W -
Away 58% - 02/15 W W - 02/08 L 02/19 W - - 03/09 02/04
Home 60% L 03/06 - - 02/08 L - W - 03/01 W 02/05 02/23
Home 61% 02/15 - 03/09 W - - W 02/01 02/19 L - 02/08 L
Home 61% 02/04 - 02/20 W 03/03 03/06 02/09 W - W - W -
Away 64% L W 02/08 - - W - 03/04 03/01 - W 02/15 L
Home 66% W W 02/02 03/07 - - - 02/26 W - 02/16 02/19 L
Home 68% 02/08 02/05 W 02/26 W - W - 02/15 L - 03/02 -
Home 72% 03/09 02/23 W - 02/01 L - - W 02/15 W - 02/12
Home 77% - 03/02 02/10 - 03/06 W - W 02/26 W 02/01 - W
Home 82% - - - 02/05 02/19 02/22 W 02/12 02/02 - W L 03/09
Total Games 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Expected Wins for an Avg Conf Team 8.9 9.3 8.7 9.4 9.4 8.9 8.5 9.0 9.6 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.0
Top Quartile Games (Hardest Games) 5 4 6 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 6
2nd Quartile Games 4 4 3 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3
3rd Quartile Games 4 5 3 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 4
Bottom Quartile Games (Easiest Games) 5 5 6 4 5 5 3 5 6 4 5 5 5
Location of Game (from perspective of team in column):
Home
Home
Away
Away
Results of Completed Games:
W
Win
L
Loss
Upcoming Games:
mm/dd
Next Scheduled Game
mm/dd
Future Scheduled Games
  Expected Wins for an
Avg Conf Team		 Top Quartile
Games (Hardest)		 2nd Quartile
Games		 3rd Quartile
Games		 Bottom Quartile
Games (Easiest)		 Total
Games
9.6 4 4 4 6 18
9.4 4 5 5 4 18
9.4 4 5 4 5 18
9.3 4 4 5 5 18
9.0 5 4 4 5 18
9.0 5 4 4 5 18
9.0 6 3 4 5 18
8.9 4 5 5 4 18
8.9 5 4 4 5 18
8.9 5 4 4 5 18
8.8 5 5 3 5 18
8.7 6 3 3 6 18
8.5 6 4 5 3 18

Location and Opponent are sorted by difficulty.
Each team column shows game results and schedules.

Conference Win Value

# Win Prob
1 5% L W L 02/08 02/09 L 02/23 02/01 03/07 02/05 02/26 03/06 L
2 10% 02/03 03/02 L 01/30 L L L 03/04 02/13 02/19 L L 03/03
3 16% 02/27 W 03/02 L W 03/09 L L 02/23 L 02/02 02/01 02/16
4 21% 03/09 L 02/03 L 03/09 02/01 02/27 L 02/16 02/12 02/11 02/10 L
5 26% W 01/30 W 02/23 02/23 02/19 03/06 L 02/02 02/02 L L 02/20
6 31% W 02/16 03/09 03/06 L W 02/16 L 02/26 03/09 02/15 02/26 L
7 37% 02/23 02/13 02/27 W 02/06 L L 02/12 L L 02/05 L 02/09
8 42% 02/11 02/02 02/11 02/05 W 02/08 W 02/23 W 02/22 L 03/02 03/06
9 47% W 03/04 W 03/09 L 02/11 03/02 W L W 03/02 L L
10 53% W W 02/19 W 02/16 L L W 02/19 L 02/19 L 02/27
11 58% W 02/23 03/06 W 02/19 W W 03/09 L 02/08 L 02/19 02/04
12 63% W 02/09 02/23 02/19 W 02/15 02/20 02/05 03/02 03/04 02/08 L 02/23
13 69% 02/08 W W 03/01 W 03/06 03/09 W 02/06 03/01 L 02/04 L
14 74% 03/03 W W W 02/01 W 02/08 02/08 L W 03/06 02/15 L
15 79% W W 02/16 02/15 03/04 W 02/02 02/15 02/09 L W L L
16 84% 02/01 03/07 W W 02/26 02/05 W 02/19 W L L W 02/12
17 90% 03/06 02/26 02/01 02/26 W 02/23 W 03/02 W 02/15 W 02/08 W
18 95% 02/19 02/05 W 02/02 02/12 03/02 02/10 L W W 02/22 03/09 03/09
Conf Win Value 3.4 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -2.6 -3.0 -3.2
Current Record 7-1 6-1 6-2 5-2 5-3 4-4 4-4 3-5 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 1-7
Est Avg Team Record 3.6-4.4 3.2-3.8 4.1-3.9 3.4-3.6 3.7-4.3 3.5-4.5 3.9-4.1 3.6-4.4 5.3-2.7 4.8-3.2 4.6-3.4 4.0-4.0 4.2-3.8
Results of Completed Games:
W
Win
L
Loss
Upcoming Games:
mm/dd
Next Scheduled Game
mm/dd
Future Scheduled Games

Each team's conference games are ranked by difficulty (based on kenpom rankings).
Win Prob is an allocation of probabilities that a team that finishes .500 in conference would win each game, favoring easier matchups.
Conf Win Value compares the actual wins to expected wins for a .500 team with that same schedule.
This only reflects past results, not future projections or predictions of final standings.

True Win Value (TWV)

Rank Team TWV Actual Record Expected Record
11
Memphis
 +2.8 16-4 13.2-6.8
49
North Texas
 -0.6 16-4 16.6-3.4
134
Temple
 -5.1 13-8 18.1-2.9
157
UAB
 -5.7 13-8 18.7-2.3
167
Florida Atlantic
 -6.2 11-10 17.2-3.8
176
East Carolina
 -6.4 12-9 18.4-2.6
179
Wichita State
 -6.4 11-10 17.4-3.6
198
Tulane
 -7.3 11-9 18.3-1.7
200
South Florida
 -7.3 11-10 18.3-2.7
222
Rice
 -8.2 11-10 19.2-1.8
223
UTSA
 -8.2 9-11 17.2-2.8
283
Tulsa
 -10.5 9-12 19.5-1.5
288
Charlotte
 -10.7 8-13 18.7-2.3

TWV (True Win Value) shows actual wins compared to expected wins for a team ranked 30th by KenPom.
Positive values indicate overperformance, negative values indicate underperformance relative to a top-30 team.

Conference Tournament Projections

Projected conference tournament outcomes based on 1,000 simulations.
Probabilities account for projected seeding and team strength ratings.

Tournament Seed Projections

Loading tournament seed projections...

NCAA tournament seed probabilities based on 1,000 simulations.
Projections consider current resume, remaining schedule, and conference tournament outcomes.

Conference KenPom Rating Distribution

Box plot shows distribution of conference AdjEM ratings from KenPom.
Box shows 25th to 75th percentile, line shows median, whiskers show top and bottom teams.

Projected NCAA Tournament Bids by Conference

Shows projected number of teams making NCAA tournament from each conference.
Percentages based on 1,000 simulations. Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.